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Next-Gen Consoles “Probably Won’t Have Physical Media”

So says one former Microsoft executive. Better appreciate your discs now because evidently, they may not last much longer.

Before this generation of consoles kicked off, Microsoft had originally planned to abandon the discs and go for a digital-only approach. But they nixed this idea due to gamers who simply weren't ready to sacrifice their physical media.

Very likely, we won't get that lucky in the new generation, though, and it will "probably" extend to all next-gen consoles. This is what former president of Microsoft's Entertainment & Development Division Robbie Bach told GeekWire in a recent interview:

"Does it have a physical media? Probably not, so how does that look? Is it just a game box or is it more? What’s the balance between what an Apple TV is and what an Xbox or a PlayStation 4 is? These are really interesting questions, and the teams going to have to wrestle with those. That next generation will be a whole new game."

I suppose nobody will be surprised if discs disappear in the new generation, but perhaps the big question is: When will that be? The previous era of gaming lasted longer than any other generation in the industry's history, dragging on for 8 years (8 for Xbox, 7 for PlayStation, 6 for Nintendo); will this one be even longer? Or are we already closing in fast on the time when physical copies of games will be a thing of the past?

NPD Study: 74 Percent Of Core Gamers Prefer Game Discs

Well, we could've told you that.

A new study from the NPD Group (as cited by GameSpot ) confirms that the majority of core gamers in the US prefer physical discs as opposed to digital media.

In fact, 74 percent of participants said they'd opt for the physical disc instead of a digital download.

However, it's important to note that last year, 79 percent of respondents said they'd go with physical media, so the percentage is falling. The recent report noted that there are around 34 million core gamers in the US, and each one spends an average of 22 hours per week playing games. For the record, the NPD applied the "core gamer" label to anyone who played at least 5 hours per week on consoles or PC.

NPD Group analyst Liam Callahan said core gamers are critical in the industry:

"Core gamers are really the lifeblood of the industry, spending tremendous amounts of time on their hobby of choice. With the new console generation off to a great start, we can expect the amount of time spent gaming to increase as more core gamers adopt them."

Of those 34 million core gamers in the country, about two-thirds (22.6 million) said they also play games on smartphones and other mobile devices. Core gamers also like multiplayer games, as 70 percent play games with others "regularly or occasionally." Although, the way I see it, 70 percent isn't that high; it means that 30 percent are hardcore gamers and almost never go online… Added Callahan:

"Core gamers are an important part of the games industry and understanding their behavior is critical to anyone invested in the games space–especially considering the launch of the new consoles and the continued evolution of digital gaming."

I'm sure that in the coming years, the percentage of people who want discs will continue to decline. Those who grew up with physical will still want it; those who didn't won't care as much when it disappears.

CliffyB: “No Disc-Based Games”

A number of developers, publishers, analysts, and industry insiders have expressed their desire to see the digital revolution continue.

One of those is Gears of War lead designer and Epic Games boss Cliff Bleszinski aka CliffyB. One of his most recent quotes has quickly made the Internet rounds, as it came from Reddit and quite simply reads- "No disc based games."

This was in reply to the question, "What do you want to see from the next-gen consoles?" This shouldn't come as any surprise to those who have followed Bleszinksi's statements and views in the past; he definitely embraces digital distribution and has often touted its merits. We at PSXE, however, still believe in the importance of physical media and have numerous concerns as to the realistic (and potentially highly frustrating) future of supposed all-digital.

Some of us prefer to keep our discs, CliffyB. If you don't mind too greatly.

Explain How This All-Digital Crap Is Preferable In Any Way

Most seem to agree that the future of the video game industry is digital. Sadly, I think the future of a great many things in this world lies in the cold and remote digital realm.

For the record, I am not against progression or advancement. I'm not against technology. What I'm against is the deification of enhanced technology that defies common sense and utilizes smoke and mirrors to create the illusion of progression.

The appeal of digital seems absolutely nonexistent to me. One can argue download speeds will get faster and despite the increasing size of games, all games will eventually be delivered digitally. All right. Say that works fine. Say it saves you a trip to the store. I understand the argument; it means you save on gas, save yourself the headache of (God forbid) having to go outside and interact with other humans for scant seconds, and saves you – ideally – time. So say you download the game you've been waiting for and you're all happy.

Explain to me the next day. Or the next year. Explain to me what happens when your hard drive shits the bed. Explain what happens when a file gets corrupted (yeah, it has been known to happen). Explain how uploading to the cloud, saving on a USB or backing up in some other way, is somehow supposed to make our lives easier, simpler, or faster. Explain how updates, patches, DRM, and downloadable content is more efficient or more practical. Explain to me how something as trivial as a power outage can royally screw your gaming hobby in the future, while decades ago, it just made me lose my place. It didn't mean I couldn't get my damn game from the store.

Twenty five years go – a full quarter-century – I put a game into a system, pressed a button and played.

Yes, everything is vastly more advanced today. I get that. But I'm really not convinced that even the best advancements we've got are worth the future headaches that I'm anticipating. We've already reached the point where playing on a console feels suspiciously like playing on a PC, what with the patches and constant "connected" incentives and requirements. Now you tell me delivering a game digitally is preferable or better? What if my connection just gives out halfway through? What if there's a flippin' power outage? What if I want to upgrade to a new system later on? How long will it take to transfer game files and game saves in my collection? What, do I black out a whole day on my calendar?

I fail to see how any of this is better, besides the obvious fact that this will allow the industry to save some money. The packaging and shipping aspect is very expensive, after all. But that should translate to cheaper costs, yes? If the physical copy of a game costs the same as the digital copy (and it often does right now), what's the point ? Just so we can point at another video screen and go, "looky looky at what I'm doing now !" In foreseeing the potential problems involved, the sheer amount of irritation, frustration and yes, time lost on dealing with this digital crap is beyond ridiculous.

The worst part is that the seemingly mindless younger generations, who may already be partly robotic due to spending the majority of their lives staring at a video screen already, don't seem to get it. For those of us living in the real world, it's painfully obvious. This is all besides the fact that a tangible physical collection should be far, far more important to anyone who actually cares about this hobby. Oh, and I could spend a lot longer talking about the constant threat of identity theft completely invading this industry if everything goes digital; I don't know about you, but I'll miss a time when I could play a game without having to worry about who just stole my personal info. But I suppose nobody notices or cares.

EA: Digital Will Rule, But We’ll Never Abandon Physical Media

It seems inevitable at this point.

Electronic Arts says that eventually, the majority of their revenue will come from digital products rather than traditional boxed products. This is what company COO Peter Moore told Reuters in a recent interview. And as expected, he says the switch is "not far away."

" There will come a point, whether it is two or three years from now, when we say, 'We are doing more in digital media now than we are in physical media,' and it's clearly … not far away. "

Moore cited EA's record $1.2 billion they earned in the digital sector over the previous fiscal year and obviously, that number is expected to rise in the future. The publisher has 41 social mobile and free-to-play games in the hopper, with even more looking to be developed for the near future. However, this doesn't mean EA will cut out boxed products altogether. Added Moore:

"We will never abandon physical media. As long as the consumer wants to buy something on a disc, we will be there to offer it."

Well now, wait a minute…doesn't that statement sort of imply that if too few consumers care about physical media, EA won't offer it? No company as big as EA will continue to produce something only a tiny handful of consumers want, right? That just doesn't seem logical.

Grasshopper CCO: Packaged Media Won’t Disappear Entirely

The future seems clear: Digital media will eventually supplant physical. Note: eventually.

However, most analysts agree that it'll take quite some time before we see a complete transition, and many developers believe there will always be room for physical media. And we dearly hope he's right.

For instance, take Grasshopper Manufacture CCO Akira Yamaoka, who told Siliconera that packaged games won't disappear, even though popular digital platforms like Steam have "a lot of potential."

"I don't think that packaged games will die out, but Steam has a lot of potential since it works with different hardware."

He also commented on the PlayStation Vita and Nintendo 3DS, and wonders why Sony's portable isn't selling. Yamaoka says "it's a really good platform" and doesn't understand why it isn't selling better in Japan. He also said he doesn't "see too many 3DS owners oversees" and that's "disappointing." But for the time being, you can bet that Sony will continue to push the hell out of their new handheld, which isn't selling too badly in North America thus far.

As for packaged media, that just has to stay put. At least for a while.