I think we all know that, given the amount of money that will ultimately go into the project, The Last Guardian will need to sell very well in order to be profitable.
Sony made it plain that the new game has to outperform the likes of ICO and Shadow of the Colossus . No surprise there, really.
However, is it really feasible?
In an industry ruled by casual gamers, it's hard to imagine a game like this becoming a runaway blockbuster. Granted, it won't have to reach huge Call of Duty or Assassin's Creed numbers to be profitable, but it will have to sell a few million at least. I just worry that we no longer have the audience for a game like that; an adventure that's more artistic and spiritual and cerebral than most other titles on store shelves. No guns, no violence, no explosions, no fast-paced bounce-around gameplay. And it's a new IP, too.
In a world where fast, flashy and dumb always supersedes intelligent and thoughtful, you can't really hope for much from The Last Guardian . You just can't. I hope Sony isn't being unrealistic in their internal estimations. They're usually not, though; they expected Heavy Rain to sell way less than it ultimately did but really, how many new IPs with very non-mainstream gameplay mechanics fare as well as Quantic Dream's masterpiece? It just doesn't happen that often.
Sony better remember to market the hell out of Guardian and I wouldn't recommend releasing it during the holiday season. The less competition the better. Even so, I wonder what the game's sales potential really is…
Related Game(s): The Last Guardian