Ben-DutkaI'm sorry, but as excited as everyone is for the PlayStation 4, I'm sensing the potential for absolute Microsoft domination in 2013. Yes, really.
The facts are quite simple:
Call of Duty: Ghosts is slated for November 5, and it's going to be a next-gen title, which means it'll be on the PlayStation 4 and Xbox 720. According to most numbers, the majority of Call of Duty lovers play on the Xbox 360. Every CoD has the potential of selling upwards of 25 million copies in its lifetime, and should be able to shatter every entertainment-related record upon launch. Yes, casual, mainstream gamers rule this industry now (as they rule any other mainstream industry).
The Xbox 720 could very well launch in November and if I'm a Microsoft executive, I'm screaming to have the system launch on November 5. Look, forget exclusives; MS doesn't need them; evidently, an Xbox could feasibly survive with only CoD these days. The game will first be previewed on two Xbox-oriented websites, and that one game alone could propel the Xbox 720 to have the single biggest console launch in history. Hell, if that was the only title available at the new Xbox's launch, records could still be broken.
And unfortunately, as this is indeed a mainstream industry, and as few can afford to purchase two expensive gaming systems in the same month, the PS4 could be SOL. It's clear that the masses absolutely have to have the new CoD every year, and if you dangle a new next-gen offering in their faces, and say it's a launch title for the new Xbox…I'm sorry, but that's checkmate. I was worried this would happen. If there's one thing Microsoft does very, very well, it's marketing, so let me paint you the depressing picture before it even happens-
In the months leading up to the launch of the PS4 and Xbox 720, Sony can try to bombard everyone all they want with Killzone: Shadow Fall , DriveClub and maybe even inFamous: Second Son . But it won't matter. MS has GameStop in their back pocket (which is why you only see giant stand-ups and other advertisements for Xbox-related stuff when you walk into a GameStop), and additionally, they'll just say, " Call of Duty: Ghosts is an Xbox 720 launch title" and that's it. At that point, I'm not even sure Uncharted 4 as a PS4 launch game could save Sony.
All things being equal in terms of pricing, which is very likely, I'm afraid that the scenario does not at all favor Sony. CoD is simply too big, and Xbox's ownership of this country is too solid.
Yeah man that's a pretty solid point, Sony could take a big hit on that front. But I think there are enough Playstation backers to keep it rolling, and maybe even enough people ready to ditch MS after a generation of decline and still charging for Live and the likelihood of an always-on console.
There's also the general malaise among Xbots. You have to figure people who haven't cared about the graphical stagnation of CoD won't care much for dropping money on a new console to get the better version of the game when it's easier to get the 360 version and they've already bought 5 Xboxes.
Exactly! If quality was important to that demographic, they wouldn't still be buying CoD like crack addicts. IF there is a 360 version available – that's where the sales are going to be. Lets face it, with CoD are we expecting a major difference between 360 & 720 versions? Neither is anyone else.
SO, Xbots will buy large quantities of Ghosts, but for the 360 – not the 720. It just won't move systems. Don't forget how many Xbots are NOT at all happy with online all the time, either. They can still play Ghosts and not have to be. JMHO.
Last edited by Norrin Radd on 5/3/2013 1:07:23 PM
Ya, and the main problem is not that they will buy a xbox for cod. Its that its hard to get them to buy your console if they just bought the other one.
But then again. The ps4 will probably come out less than a month later (and we'll most likely know the official release date) and they will be able to buy cod on that and play all those ps4 exclusives.
Then again, people are impatient.
irregardless, still buying PS4 D1 and will not be buying CoD … for me the last CoD was the first modern warfare, CoD MW4. Afterwards the series does not interest me, now the new BF4 does interest me.
You mean CoD4 MW
The last Call of Duty I own is W@W. My relatives basically own the whole series of this gen. Whenever I visit those are the times that I do get to play the COD's that I don't own.
lol @ irregardless
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/irregardless
Well, seeing as Watch Dogs is rumoured to be released after the PS4 launch, I think is safe to say that the PS4 will be out before CoD. That said, I think the PS4 might gain a little traction to keep it alive through the reign of CoD. We also seem to be forgetting about the Video Game violence debate. Even if the news claims are bogus, a lot of parents are becoming wiser and will probably forgo CoD this year. Then factor in the fact that I'm assuming most people who want to play with their friends will have to use the 360 (because of another possiblity of the next box not having multiplatform online play), you will have most CoD players playing on the normal 360. I don't think Ghost will boost sales as much as people speculate. If it was a next gen exclusive, then Sony would have no hope, but it isn't.
Last edited by gorezilla on 5/2/2013 11:16:47 PM
I don't like the amount of influence CoD has over the industry. The crazy thing is that the games aren't bad (but not great), its the people online that turn me off
My issue isn't with CoD. It's with Devs and Publishers who think games aren't worth it if they don't sell CoD numbers, therefore feel the need to emulate the franchise. Go to youtube and look-up "TUN: un-ruining the mmo". It's the same principle. CoD made some refined choices that are excellent for the game it is. But because of it success it has become the template for too many games.
Last edited by gorezilla on 5/3/2013 12:46:12 AM
I see your point. But…save Sony from what?
While this could lead to the largest console launch in history it would also mean that pretty much every xbox sold after that would be to replace a broken one. If all the cod lovers buy an xbox at launch there won't be much of anyone left to buy another after that.
Plus if the new xbox is actually reliable we might see some relevant sales data this gen. Meaning MS can't claim ridiculous sales numbers because they replaced every xbox 5 times.
I think MS will absolutely leverage the weight of CoD to boost the next-xbox. MS knows that the success of Xbox Live, a very profitable stream of revenue, is greatly affected by CoD's presence. MS has paid handsomely for this.
But with MS's cards not on the table I think it's a little too soon to be scared. I do suspect the bundled Kinect, cellphone-style payment plans, and the CoD plus Halo combo will make for a mainstream force to be reckoned with.
Personally, I just don't care who's in first, sales wise. That stopped mattering to me a long time ago. I just care that Sony has enough of it's own support so the quality and availability of content doesn't suffer.
Tell Sony to go light a fire under Square Enix and get FF7 as a PS4 launch title. They can whip that out in a few months right?
Only if Lightning is in it.
maby out of the gate, M$ will take the lead if the new cod
and the 720 launch at the same time, but thats just one game.
so imo, sony should'nt have anything to be afraid of.
Well, I think I can make a point of view from my perspective. I have had an xbox 360 this entire generation no PS3. Most of my friends have a PS3. I have gone through 4 xbox 360's do to poor quality and I love COD games as well. But this time around I am looking at what the systems offer, the less the restrictions is the game system I am going for. This gen yes I was stuck with a lot of content I purchased on xbox but going into the next gen I am examining both consoles and their features, not apps ect I am not interested in that stuff. I have never had xbox live gold I refuse as PC is free, PS3 is free why would I pay to have the privilage to play online when everyone else gets it for free. I guess I am a "it's the principle" type guy. While I like the thumbstick locations on the xbox better the PS3 controller is good just not when you are used to the controllers in a different place. I don't buy a system for one game. To me the next xbox so far seems a no go unless they say online is free, I don't have to have a stupid kinnect hooked up at all times to spy on me to see if anyone is watching a movie with me. I like to game on a controller not some movement junk. And also DRM management systems ect. We shall see but I am the base you are describing and I am not dead set on a new xbox, the systems even the slims are just as bad as the original. I have had 3 bad 360 slims right out of the box and I am OCD about my systems. PS4 wont be backward compatible out the gate but if some of my favorites get ported from PC to PS4 in bundles packs I'll go with PS4.
Last edited by shoot2kill73 on 5/3/2013 12:23:14 AM
I wouldn't worry. If GTA5 does launch later this year, nothing is going to beat it. Not even MS's almost emptied pockets will be able to beat GTA5, all Sony needs to do is get some ps3/GTA5 going on bam.
Would they not release CoD for the older systems too?
Did they announce that its only next gen? I dont see cod taking a hit and wait for sales for every1 to buy a new console. Which if it comes out 360 too it could have a negative effect, all cod players wanna play shooter's with there friends causing them to buy this gen version, causing them to wait longer to buy it
The game is for both current and next-gen systems, of course. It'd be financial suicide to only make the new Call of Duty for next-gen platforms, when the userbase is basically zero. The userbase of the PS3/360 is a combined 150 – 160 million.
Last edited by Ben Dutka PSXE on 5/3/2013 1:16:29 AM
This is why the industry sucks bullocks. This will just be a shoddy port that they will market as next gen. The only reason COD sells 25 million is because parents are buying it for there teenage sons and daughters. Occupy / COD + Gamestop Commence!!!!!!!!!!! I am making it my personal mission to expose this corporate greed, you should too. Go to your local gamestop and get video evidence of them selling COD to minors through their parents or directly. Or just call them up and state that you are like 15 and ask them if you can preorder, make sure you record the whole conversation. Then upload to youtube and the community will do the rest!
Sony would likely start at a large disadvantage, but I wouldn't be calling checkmate just yet.
Despite what COD fans might believe – Call of Duty is simply not that important to dislodge Sony from the market. Microsoft is a joke now – they are focused on casual gaming pure and simple and that reality will crap all over hardcore gamers regardless of what 'exclusives' may appear.
Most xboxers will play this game on their 360's. Unless the new xbox is 400 bucks or under, there should be no worries for Sony. But then again, MS could come out with a 2 qautrillion gig gfaphics chip with 999 gb of ram, with a pony, and steal Sony's thunder. You can never count out MS.
I think this is a great point. Since this game will also release for the Xbox 360, the majority of the players may just stick to that version. It's the cheaper and more mainstream option.
It's not like every X360 CoD players will jump ship to the 720's version. For this to happen and be damaging Sony's launch, it would have to be EXCLUSIVE to the 720, but I know even M$ won't be able to pay off 720 exclusivity over PS3, PS4, 720, 360, and even possibly Wii U's market. Activision will have to request tens of billions of $$$ from M$ for that to happen, so it's all good imo.
If you assume that most casual gamers would spend $500 to play a game available on their currently purchased console (or the PS4)and expect most of their friends to do the same, then I guess your doom-gloom point makes sense.
Casual just means you only play one or two games or types of games. It has nothing to do with money spent. Lots of people pretty much only play Call of Duty, and if that's the only game they play, you can bet your ass they're going to spend plenty.
You think all those ridiculously expensive special editions of the game sell out completely EVERY year because CoD players are hardcore? Really?
To begin, I don't think your subjective definition of "casual" has any weight in the matter. Second, I'm not going to "bet my ass" that a majority of individuals who play a game solely for the online and social factors are going to spend $500 for the experience. Yeah, CoD is immensely popular, but you're suggesting that it's the casual players who are buying the expensive collectors editions? Wouldn't you think that it would be the hardcore gaming crowd buying those while a majority of the casual purchases are either standard retail or used copies?
Early adoption comes down to the passion of the fanbase, which I believe Sony has in greater numbers. Your translation of "all CoD buyers are Microsoft loyalists who will do anything to play the most technically enhanced version of a game on a new Xbox (foregoing the availability on PS3, WiiU, 360, and PC)" is fallacious at best.
As far as checkmate goes that won't happen, I would even hesitate on using the word check in this situation. Even if the stars line up and the system is released same day, or at the very least same month it would be like the first hard hit of a boxing match. Luckily these 2 companies are not like a Tyson vs. random nobody type fight, this is a much more even match. And just looking at the PS3 release and its first year or two compared to its current position shows that won't happen. This isn't a Dreamcast situation, Sony understands and is in it for the long haul, not for the short term.
Doesn't even matter. Microsoft will most likely win in the US of A, while Sony will win almost everywhere else. Just like last time.
You're wrong, and I'll tell you why.
1) Rumor is that development of the next Xbox is running behind schedule. Like 6 MONTHS behind schedule. Chances of it launching alongside COD are slim.
2) Even though Xbox 360 started with a huge lead, 360 and PS3 are running neck and neck now, which indicates that PS3 has the momentum.
3) The Xbox 360 failure rate burned most of their customers. Every one of my friends (not some, not most, but ALL) who were Xboxers this gen are saying their going Playstation this gen just because they've had to replace their Xboxes…some multiple times.
4) Xboxers who have just spent the last 7 (?) years paying to play COD online are really eying Playstations free online play.
5) Another rumor is that the next Xbox will not be backwards compatible. That's one more reason for current Xboxers to abandon their brand.
6) It's looking like the PS4 is on track to launch with or before COD. Even if MS manages to get their system out on time, having COD on both platforms is going to make it even. After that, people are going to be looking at what other games are launching with the systems. Advantage Playstation.
1) No, most of those rumors have proven completely false.
2) I'm only talking about 2013, not the entire generation.
3) The Xbox failure rate matters not at all. Everyone just kept rebuying the system, didn't they? And don't forget that this time, the PS4 has similar AMD architecture…it could be failing just as easily now.
4) No, they're not.
5) Of course it won't be b/c. How does that matter?
6) Doesn't matter. CoD and the new Xbox will be on millions of minds come fall.
Would you like to cite a source where these rumors from anonymous informants are proven false?
Last edited by Siris86 on 5/3/2013 4:06:03 PM
1) The rumors haven't been PROVEN anything. That's why they remain rumors.
2) I'm not talking about the entire generation either. Over the last 12 months, PS3 has consistently outsold the 360. Source: http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php
3) Really? You think people who had to replace their 360s 2 and 3 times aren't considering that at all this time around? It's one thing to buy another 360 because you already have a game library for the 360 and you've already paid for a year of Xbox live. But, going into a new generation, especially when the next generation isn't BC, you've got almost no reason to stick with a brand that has burned you.
4) No they're not? Really? You honestly think no one is thinking, "Hey, if I go PS3, I don't have to pay a monthly subscription to play my games online any more?" I don't know if you noticed, but there's a worldwide recession going on. People are cutting corners. EVERYBODY is thinking about that.
5) BC matters because it encourages cross-generational brand loyalty. If you've already invested money in a big game library, you're more likely to go with the system that supports that library/investment. As I said in point 3, people didn't buy 3 and 4 360s because they're awesome. They bought 3 and 4 360s because they had already invested in their game libraries and switching systems would have rendered every single game useless. Going forward, without BC, Xbox loses that incentive.
6) Yes, COD will be on millions of minds. Millions of people will want to play it ASAP. If PS4 launches first, that means they'll be playing it on PS4. If the systems launch at about the same time, considering the points above, they'll STILL be playing it on PS4.
Bottom line is, Xbox is about to see a mass exodus of their gamers. Mark my words. I'm the only staunch Playstation loyalist amongst my friends. Every other one of my friends are/were Xbox and Gears of War enthusiasts. I've watched their love for Xbox wane as the generation has carried on. Every single one of them has gone for "PS3 has no games" to "Man, there's no way I'm buying another Xbox" over the last few years. Unless MS announces something truly revolutionary come May 21st…
Well, I guess we'll just see.
I wouldn't worry at all for a bunch of reasons:
– the next CoD is coming out on PS4 and the Next Xbox – sure, MS will hammer the marketing, but I'm sure Sony will make it clear you can get CoD on the PS4 as well.
– It's only the US where CoD is huge – the US is (a little) less than half the video games market, and it's the only segment of the market where the Xbox has the edge.
– A lot of CoDders are getting a little tired of CoD – they'll still buy it, but will they buy a new console for it? We don't know what the next big thing will be, but there's no guarantee CoD continues to rule the roost (particularly given its gameplay, while polished, is hardly standout).
The other thing is, all those people that buy CoD who are also broader-based gamers (rather than CoD-only types) will have an incentive to PS4, if half the rumours about the Next Xbox being a mass-market device are true.
Not really, it's pretty huge here in the UK to that and Fifa… not fond of either of them in all honesty.
Luckily i am not in "this country" and PS3 dominates in South Africa.
I think the USA is sometimes too awesome for its own good.
Do you really buy an xbox only coz its a US product when the PS is clearly better and has better games?
I think PS4 might surprise us here…
Then again I might be wrong…
Sony won't make a chance in the United States anyway. Most Americans will _always_ prefer the American Microsoft over the Japanese Sony, because… well, Microsoft is American and Sony isn't.
I don't even see why Sony bothers to try to sell well in the United States. As long as the PlayStation 4 launches in Europe before Christmas, I don't see any problems for Sony.
Europe, with the exception of the United Kingdom, usually prefers the PlayStation-brand over the Xbox-brand. And even now, I hear more and more X360 users say that, if they get a next-gen console, it would most likely be a PlayStation 4 because they don't like the monthly payments for XBLA and the extra costs attached to Xbox.
Heck, one of the more positive things about the Xbox 360 I have heard recently was: "I hope it breaks down [again] soon, because than I'll probably get a free controller or game as compensation."
PlayStation 4 in the United States is a lost cause.
Yeah. Why does Sony even try in the US… It's not like they've dominated the market there for 2 generations before the PS3.
The PS3 had a lot of problems during its first 2 or so year. And I think one should know that not 2 generations play out the same. One market leader can become dead last from one gen to the other.
Calling next gen already in the pocket for either of them is at this point utterly ludicrous.
Last edited by Hynad on 5/3/2013 7:57:08 AM
@hynad: "Calling next gen already in the pocket for either of them is at this point utterly ludicrous."
I'm saying that Microsoft will dominate in the United States no matter what Sony does. Americans are very, well, pro-American. If they've got the choice between an American and non-American product, they will usually go for the American one – even if the American one isn't as good as the non-American one.
I think it would be smarter for Sony to focus on Europe, because Europeans are usually looking for the better product, rather than the 'American' (or in their case: 'European') product. With the right marketing, Sony could capture at least 80+%* of the European market (and Microsoft 20%). In the United States, Sony should be really, really glad if they manage to get more than 50%* of the market.
So yes, unless Microsoft doesn't make a US launch, Sony won't capture 50+% of the market.
And the only way for Microsoft to capture 50+% of the market in Europe, is when Sony screws up with the European launch – and even than, it is going to be hard.
* Just looking at market share between Xbox and PlayStation, not including Wii U.
"Americans are very, well, pro-American. If they've got the choice between an American and non-American product, they will usually go for the American one – even if the American one isn't as good as the non-American one."
That statement is so far from true.
You argument doesn't stand. The PS3 is the first time a Sony console sell less than its competition in the US. The 360 did get quiet a lot of momentum early on by benefiting from a year early start as well as from the PS3's launch high price.
The fact that you conveniently leave the Wii out to make your spin says a lot. Americans buy american? The Wii isn't american and pretty much a game console. Yet it outsold all of its competition in just about every markets it was available to. Including the US.
Based on your erroneous assumption, US citizens would buy american when it comes to cars as well, no? Yeah… but no. US car brands sell well, but in sheer number of units sold, they don't compare to the "Asian" manufacturers (like, say, Toyota, and Kia). And when it comes to AV electronics? Emerson is no where near Samsung… So… What do you base this assumption on, exactly?
Now, prior to this generation, the PS brand was outselling everything. This gen the 360 managed to outsell it in the US by quite a margin. And this is your only basis to form your assumption about how next gen will pan out. You presume that because a generation went a certain way, the next will be just the same. If that was so, then Nintendo would have been the number one selling brand since 1985.
Last edited by Hynad on 5/3/2013 10:46:52 AM
**can't seem to type *#&$ this morning** ha ha ha
Something..what you are doing is generalizing everyone in America which makes the majority of what you're saying false.
Something, I could understand your arguement if I was a American veteran that served in WWII.
Last edited by AcHiLLiA on 5/3/2013 4:22:01 PM
Yes. The entire 8th generation is going to be decided by one single game.
-__-
yeah it doesn't claim that anywhere…
Saying Sony will be screwed, and saying it's gonna be a checkmate pretty much implies that. -__-
At best, it's overly alarmist. CoD will come out for the PS4 as well. And the jury is still out on whether or not the NexBox will be any good and cater to that crowd better than the PS4.
Last edited by Hynad on 5/3/2013 10:06:26 AM