Sony has announced that impressive 136 million worldwide sell-in statistic for the PlayStation 2, and it got us to wondering: will the PlayStation 3 ever match or surpass the immense success of its predecessor?
Depending on the source, Sony has currently sold about 22-24 million PS3 units worldwide and the system is about two and a half years into its lifespan. Obviously, we can't do a linear math equation 'cuz they don't sell the exact same number of units each year – far from it – but we can look down the road a ways, can't we? Thing is, Sony has several things going against them if they want the PS3 to live up to the lofty sales standards of the PS2: first, they weren't the first ones to the market this generation, and that has already had a negative impact. Second, the economy took a dive and the PS3 is still more expensive than the competition. Thirdly and lastly, it still seems as if the ignorant mainstream media wants to write articles that say, "Can such-and-such save the PS3?" But I think even the most ardent pessimists will agree that the console has made great strides in the past year, and it currently has a full head of steam as we roll through 2009.
A few of the amazing exclusive are already here and many more are on the way, and let's not forget about that ever-expanding Network. Obviously, what we need now is a price drop: we've already said that when it comes, it will eventually allow the PS3 to surprass the Xbox 360 . And while we stick to that prediction, it doesn't necessarily mean that the PS3 will have sold 140 million units in less than 7 years time. In looking at the numbers realistically, perhaps it makes more sense to ask, "will any system ever match the PS2's success?" In retrospect, it just seemed as if everything went Sony's way during the PS2 era; they came out first, Microsoft and the Xbox wasn't very well liked, the GameCube didn't provide a huge amount of competition, and the economy was trucking right along. Now, after the price drop to $99, there's no knowing what the final tally will be. Hell, they may have sold 175 million units in 7 years time, and there seems to be no chance for any current-gen console to match that mark.
The bottom line is that the PS2 may have set sales records that could stand for a very long time. The PS3 is certainly on the rise and we still think it'll eventually top the 360, but to have the gaudy numbers of the PS2…? It just seems incredibly unlikely.
I like my Ps3 better than the Ps2
well duuhh, every does. ps3 is WAY better
I love them equally!
The PS2 has many great games; and accordingly, my PS2 collection is my largest, followed only by my PSX collection. I'm sure my PS3 collection will eventually dwarf my DC, Saturn, Xbox, GC, and N64 collections. Heck, it already dwarfs my 360 and Wii collections.
My answer is no those are some incredible numbers to match, the ps2 is still selling.
Ps3 is one of if not the best system ever made dont get it twisted.
i thought the ps2 was turned ten? soo…uh confused on the 7 years deadline thing. unless you mean the ps3 has 7 years to make that much…oh i see that's it lol answering my question in my own thing lol fail much
It is turning 10 this year.
Yes it can first cut the price by $100 or 50 the minimum then they need to get back all most of the developers that supported them before like Rockstar and SE and finally bring back the ps1 and ps2 classic franchises to this generation(Twisted metal,Jet moto,Jak and Dexter,Shadow of the Colossus ect.)this will put ps3 above everything no questions asked.
im thinking it may come close…. but im going to have to agree that its unlikely. the market is split too evenly between sony and microsoft, so sony wont see the exclusive lineup that helped to drive sales of the ps2.
i do believe that the PS3 will surpase the sales of the XBOX though
Last edited by ThugNificent101 on 4/6/2009 11:31:16 PM
I understand the pessimism but I have to say I think the potential is there. PS3 has had a very slow start and I think we are now seeing what it is capable of and there are a number of factors that should be considered as far as future sales go:
1.) While 360 will do just fine for certain titles, the truly epic processing power in PS3 plus the capacity of blu ray will be required to bring the real next gen software to bear. (Such as MAG)
2.) As Blu Ray picks up pace, the built in Blu Ray player will finally become the big selling point it was meant to be 2 years ago.
3.) The economy will certainly pick up in the next few years.
4.) More people than ever are into gaming now and when they can afford it, they will want the best. Even the Wii may get some credit for getting people into gaming that will move on to become "hardcore" gamers.
5.) If you look at Sony console history, the quality of games only gets better with the console's age, best software=sales driven up.
The potential is there, but yeah those numbers will be hard to duplicate nonetheless.
Last edited by WorldEndsWithMe on 4/6/2009 11:35:08 PM
Just for the sake of argument, I'm going to make a rebuttal to #2. I think the time for the blu-ray player really driving sales (assuming we are talking about movies, not games) has come and gone. Sadly, a good portion of the people I know who have a PS3 bought it for blu-ray movies, and they now wish they had just waited and bought a blu-ray player when the price dropped.
Anyway, the point is that I think the price blu-ray players will continue to drop faster than the price of the PS3, and many people will just buy a stand alone player instead.
And just to clarify, those people I mentioned aren't 360 fanboys or anything. They just aren't big gamers.
True Jasper, they kinda missed the boat, but for people waiting a couple more years to upgrade both consoles and movie players, PS3 could get an upward swing, not a big one mind you. I still think DVDs will go the way of VHS sooner or later.
Good point, and I absolutely agree about DVD being replaced. In fact, from what I hear it might happen quicker than DVD replaced VHS.
And 2 thumbs down? Really? You people have a problem with a civilized, friendly debate?
haha, don't sweat it, I get thumbs down for asking the community simple questions about games i know nothing about.
Software determines everything*
That's just how it is. In the end if the ps3 can surpass the ps2 in terms of great games, the ps3 will end up beating the ps2.
FPSs don't help though…
How do FPSs not help? I know a good amount of gamers who spend 90% of their gaming time on one FPS for months.
ya man. ive been playing cod4 for almost a year. and KZ2 of course
I think he means that the market is saturated with them right now and I agree. I love COD4 and KZ2 don't get me wrong but I could really, really go for some RPGs right about now and the only place to get those surprisingly has been the 360. I have stopped playing KZ2 and COD because of RE5 which somehow sucked me in and I love it now, don't know how that happened. But I think the point here and I may be wrong is that if FPS games just keep pumping out who the hell is really going to care? I can only play so many FPS games before I just don't care anymore.
Im pretty confident the Ps3 will pass up the PS2. It make take longer than we would like, but it will happen.
Im pretty confident the Ps3 will pass up the PS2. It make take longer than we would like, but it will happen.
7Â½ years before it hits 10. 22+ million already sold. Needs to make about another 120 million sales in 7Â½ years. That my friends is 16 million units a year – average.
Should Sony implement a major price cut this year, 16 million is possible in the current year. With more and more quality games coming, and another $50 cut off the price in a year or two, sustained sales of 16 million units a year are definitely possible. In fact if sales increase year on year and Sony does 16 million this year, 20 million the year after and then another 20 million the year after that, they would be on course to sell at least 100 million PS3s by the end of life of the system. Looking at the sales of PS3 units in the US, it's a fairly constant ramp up. Current sales evidence in Japan suggests sales are strengthening also.
The doom and gloom merchants need to sober up and look at the real picture. Everywhere you look right now articles quote PS3 unit sales at about 22 million, some say 21.5 million. The trouble is that those numbers were about right at the time of CES in early January, more than 10 weeks of sales ago. It really doesn't matter at this point how well (or not) the 360 or Wii sell, what matters is PS3 units. I'm not sure what the break even point is for Sony on PS3 but considering the small fortune my household has spent on games, controllers, eyetoys, and PSN content, they have surely made a profit from us. Time is on Sony's side, but they *have* to hold their course. HDTV is here to stay. 720p/1080i/1080p HDTV is *the* standard for the next 20 years of so. 3D is a gimmick, and will not become mainstream for at least a decade (if ever). So there will not be a real need for a different playback technology than what is already in PS3, and PS3 already does games at all three resolutions.
In other words, 10 years from now PS3 will be just as current as it is now for the majority of functions. Sony appears to be dragging their feet on a price cut, but another way to look at it is that they are preserving the value of the PS3 during the recession. As the economy improves and consumers start purchasing again, a cut price PS3 might seem like a steal…if you see what I mean.
not to make waves in your article ben but the ps2 was not first to market, if I'm not mistaken(please correct me if I am) lest we not forget the Dreamcast…..(and we all know what happened to that system)
Last edited by march6969 on 4/7/2009 12:33:13 AM
I was actually going to post that same exact thing. Neither the PS1, PS2, or PS3 were first to market in any gen.
The Saturn beat the PS1 to market. I think the N64 came out afterward.
The DC beat the PS2 to market, followed by the GameCube and Xbox.
The 360 beat the PS3 to market with the PS3 and Wii coming out at the same time.
The big difference this gen has been Nintendo releasing its console simultaneously with Sony's console… that didn't happen in the last two gens.
Anyway, who would give you a thumbs down just for pointing out a factual error?
I seriously doubt anyone counts the DC as a serious competitor in that generation. It was basically dead in 2001, even before the Xbox and GC launched. The competition was primarily between the same three manufacturers that are present today.
Sega had no chance of defending themselves against either Sony or MS in the long run. The PS2 was the first to market in the competition that matters.
Last edited by Ben Dutka PSXE on 4/7/2009 10:19:48 AM
I disagree. While the DC was doomed because many people were waiting on the PS2, it was still a great and viable system. There were many fun games on that system.
Besides, no matter how you twist it, you can't dispute the fact it was the first console out during the PS2 generation.
I find it odd, however, that during this gen many of those same PS2 customers didn't wait for the PS3, instead opting for the 360.
To me the PS3 is cooler then the PS2.
My take on all of this…
1] I think it will be difficult for the PS3 to surpass PS2 numbers. Not impossible but difficult. There are too many variables that will change the way games are played and delivered in the next 5 years
2] I agree generally, Blu-Ray has not had a huge effect on PS3 sales. It did at the start, but it has fallen off as Blu-Ray player prices have come down from their ridiculous highs 18-24 months ago… when the PS3 was superbly placed to take advantage of the price differentials…
3] The Wii will continue to sell well, and outstrip PS3 sales in most regions of the world
4] The Wii and Xbox360, will also continue to sell well (generally) due to the fact that they are crackable and people can load Home brew software. Read between the lines and you know what I mean… I do not see thins changing anytime soon
5] A possible new Xbox console; even though not imminent, will likely continue to bleed sales away from potential PS3 buyers, however, if Sony continue with a range of exciting exclusives, and the PS3 is cheaper than any new Xbox console that may be released, the PS3 will continue to attract old and new Xbox converts… but by how much, well the sales numbers will tell us when everything has shacken out
6] PS3 should expect a sales surge once the price is cut, as most agree here. The great exclusives line up will only help the console generally toward that goal. 16-20 million consoles per year would be a hard push… you would need hardware at $259 to make that a reality…
Conclusion… PS3 may beat the PS2, but from where I am standing, looking at the variables confronting it, the economic situation which continues to deteriorate… I find this hard to believe… not to mention the way gaming itself is changing with likes of Zeebo and OnLive being released…
Looks like a confusing and rather difficult picture overall for the PS3… what it has done in the past 2 years considering, has been remarkable… and I expect the hardware to stand the test of time for the next 2-3 years… after that it is anyones game…
Footnote: Must add; Sony is in a strong position generally with regards to I.P. Due to their Film, TV and Music assets they have a wealth of product to use and translate across to their PS3, PSP and PS2 platforms… this may give Sony the edge in the long run… basically, expect many more exclusives to come, and expect converts to be attracted by those exclusives… To some degree, Sony has the edge, it just needs to do things right… great exclusives, good marketing, community based HOME and an attractive price point…
"i am home"
Last edited by Qubex on 4/7/2009 1:11:57 AM
I think many of you guys are missing the point with the whole Blu-Ray thing.
It's not Blu-Ray wins then push PS3 sales, it's the other way around, PS3 push Blu-Ray sales then Blu-Ray wins. That was Sony strategy to win the HD war and it worked wonderfully.
IMO is a good thing people are buying the PS3 for THE GAMES, and thanks to Sony first and second party studies we are getting a LOT of them. Happy us :D.
Regarding the question? Yes it will. PS3 has the potential, the longevity, PS is a powerful brand. Sony knows it, and they are playing their cards very carefully. First off, make the PS3 profitable.
If the PS3 is gonna surpass the PS2, it will just take a long production. The good thing about that is the PS3 is quite capable of not being obsolete, thanks to its vast unused power so far. But it will take a long run, since they took so long to perfect it and get it out onto the market, many loyal Playstation users switched over to 360.
But look at another fact: maybe 360 will continue to be so plagued with major errors that hardcore gamers will start to switch to PS3.
we've had a few cracking titles this gen, MGS4, Resistance1&2, Siren: Blood Curse, Street Fighter IV, Fallout 3, Bioshock.
but with that theres been many dissapointments, RE5,GTAIV, Silent Hill: Homecoming, Devil May Cry 4. I've sold more games than i currently own!
The PS2 certainly had better exclusives, In my opinion i still think the PS1's been the strongest, it brought out so many original titles, compair how many original titles the PS1 had released on the console compaired to the XBOX1 and you'll see why its such a landmark console.
very true. I find it hard to believe any future console or even any current could pass something like the PS1. Games just started to evolve back then because it was when developers started to 'care' so to speak, like taking the time to create great stories, gameplay, etc. I think it's starting to get very tough for devs to create a new innovative title now-a-days. Granted they are still coming at relatively good pace but look at Huxley for instance.. that game is a COMPLETE rip-off of UT3 LOL!
Absolutely NOT! I'm just looking at things realistically
Many reasons… but primarily 2… 1- gigantic gaming library and 2- there weren't to many appealing competitors at that time
Dun get me wrong… the PS3 is AMAZING… but which system is selling best? The Wii – which really isn't a next gen console… either way I would LOVE to see the PS3 do well… but in all honestly it won't go hear the PS2
Last edited by Mystearica on 4/7/2009 3:15:44 AM
You're confusing me. What are you saying about the Wii? 1. It does not have a gigantic gaming library. 2. It has two other very appealing competitors.
The Wii's sales numbers come from a select few exclusives that everyone seems to love. That's all you need for console sales.
I don't see the PS3 surpassing the PS2 unless over time it's able to drop down to as little as ~$150 or so. I don't think it's overpriced as-is now…I just think it would need to get eventually down to that price by about 2011-2012 or so to keep sales going.
I believe some of the other analysis that MS and Sony are unlikely to release anything new for another 3-5 years (except maybe re-designs of the existing consoles) because of most users not really wanting to be upgrading that often, but I think Nintendo might do something HD-capable (WiiHD, anyone?) within the next 3 years and the whole console market might depend on what happens with that.
It doesn't sound like Nintendo has any aspiration to be the pricey processing behemoth in the market, though, so they could be sorta their own market aside from MS/Sony, like the Wii is now.
Similarly, it depends on what happens w/ CPU development w/ IBM & Cell, Intel & Larabie, or some possible other party (including nVidia or AMD/ATI) over the next few years.
Anyway, back to the main question… People were hungry for something new when the the PS came out and the PS2 was a great extension to it, while the previous leaders, Sega & Nintendo, were kinda faltering…the latter was just able to hang on better. PS(1) and PS2 just kinda came around at the right time to succeed and I think the market would have to run into a similar 'staleness' for that success to happen again (and at the right price).
Maybe someone else needs to join the competition? A new Atari-SEGA joint venture…the Firebird Genesis 15600-256X!!! 😉
Last edited by xnonsuchx on 4/7/2009 5:40:24 AM
I don't think we can be certain that the PS3 isn't going to do something brand new like the PS1 did because up till now it has just had to play catchup. It's capable of some crazy things by the looks of it, and i think we may see some amazing new breakthroughs in the years to come, just like ps1 was capable of in its day.
PS2 is KILLING PS3 in my opinion.
XBOX has been canned a long time ago,MS are catering for 360,giving it their all.
Basically i see Sony are scared if the PS2 is stopped,consumers migrating will go for the cheapest console on the market,that is Xbox 360.This the reason why i think we still see the PS2 around.
I had a friend say the same,that the PS2 is slowing the PS3,if Sony should hope PS3 sales should rise then they'd better stop PS2 production,so more people could migrate.But then again they're scared the new next-gen adopters will go for Xbox 360.
Last edited by www on 4/7/2009 5:52:43 AM
The trouble with your argument is that a) Sony makes lots of money from PS2 helping to pay for the PS3 right now. b) PS3 is outselling PS2 in all markets. c) PS3 is Sony's future and they know it.
PS3 has a 10 year life (at least) and is only 2 and a half years into that. PS2 has been going strong for 8-9 years now (depending on the market) which clearly demonstrates that a 10 year life is not foolish thinking. PS3 was probably a year or two earlier on the technology curve than the PS2 was when it released, Blu Ray adoption is ramping up. PS3 has a very secure future.
PS2 is not slowing the PS3, they sell to different consumers. PS2 costs $99.99, that's $300 less than PS3. Those are not the same markets or consumers.
Last edited by TheHighlander on 4/7/2009 10:56:01 AM
So is it 136 million in 10 years for the PS2? Isn't that an average of just under 14 mil per year? The PS3 is already averaging 11 mil per year? I'd say it's pretty clear what's going to happen. The only uncertainty will be this rotten economy.
It seems to me that sony also wants to cut the price but the cant due to current economic enviroment. Thats why their are investing in AAA exclusive titles that will be irresistable to real gamers, sony should just aggresively market the ps3 when they cut the price. Anyway the ps3 is a better system than ps2 when it comes to intertainment value.
that is what i was thinkin. sony should cut the price of the ps3. i dont think they are eager to drop prices cause the ps2 is still in the hundreds(price)
Is The Ps1 Also Legendary, How Many Units Did It Sell? Lol I wanna Boot It Up But I Borrowed All My Games To My Friends, And Their Friends, Troublesome. Ps3 Won*t Reach That Standard If Something About Advertisement N Cost Prices, Especially Here.
i have a ps1. its old but still really fun
Last edited by ironman505 on 4/7/2009 9:15:24 AM
The PS1 is… wait for it … LEGENDARY!
The ps2 is a god among gaming systems. Looking back at the last few years its really just mind blowing how many great games were on the ps2.
To be fair, when the ps2 came out we probably thought it would have a hard time beating the awesome psx library. I dont think the ps3 will surpass the ps2 just because the ps2 made such a massive impact on the gaming world, but i think it will come close. Maybe not in quantity, but definitely quality.
I bought Shadow of Memories and Faernheit today, i really hope Heavy RAin delivers.
Not in this economy.
Wonder if sony could make a intercooler/backwards compatable add on pack for the ps3. I think that all Ps3s have the basic guts to read the ps2 disks. So in theory couldnt they slap an external add on that could add backwards compatability. Also I would like to see a ds3 controller that would break in half and be able to be used in two pieces like with motion controls and then magnetically stick back together.
only problem is magnetic toys suck.
Sony has a design for such a controller.
I think we said goodbye to physical add-ons with the sega cd, 32x, and Jaguar CD. All failed.
I seriously doubt it. PS2 was a perfect mix of hardcore and casual appeal — huge array of exclusive games across all genres, terrific graphics for its time, built-in DVD player (I know PS2 was my first player!)AAA titles released every other day for a while there,and the MOST expensive it ever was was a measley 300 beans. There isn't a system in the current generation that comes close to offering all of that.