Based on the current numbers, this seems to be an absurd question.
Sony is having real difficulty selling the PlayStation Vita, while the Nintendo 3DS, despite recently missing internal projects, is still a hot seller every month. Sure, the PlayStation 4 was the top console in the US in January, even beating out the 3DS, but where was the Vita? I don't think Sony wants you to know.
But just for the sake of argument, what would have to happen for the Vita to eventually catch the 3DS in the sales department? Let's just consider that it's possible (even though it doesn't currently appear feasible). What's the sequence of events that would have to happen, short of Nintendo inexplicably going bankrupt sometime soon? I think it hinges on price and games, and whether or not Nintendo will indeed license out their legendary mascots. If we can play our Mario and Zelda games on smartphones and tablets, for instance, that could have an impact on 3DS sales.
The Vita really needs a price drop and a lot more exclusive software. One important thing to remember is that the PSP needed several years before it started to become relevant on the sales charts. It wouldn't be too shocking if the Vita started to have a few good months here and there, especially if the games began to flow and the price was agreeable. Thing is, the Vita is a very capable device, far more technically proficient than the 3DS, so that has to be worth something . It's an obvious edge, if Sony could only market it correctly. And again…games. Needed. Lots of them.
What do you say?