Before I present my theory, I have to start with a disclaimer: the elitist mentality in the gaming population translates to the widespread belief that any hardcore fan can do a critic's job and an analyst's job, and do it better than either of the aforementioned professionals. It's a little embarrassing to see so much of this in the communities and forums around the Internet, actually. I'm not saying critics and analysts are always correct, but I am saying that both have certain skills and credentials that mean they are – yes, they are – more qualified to be in their positions than the dude who spends his life on forums spreading his "I know more than everyone" maxim.
That being said, I do often wonder if analysts take the time to use an added dose of common sense when it comes to their predictions and expectations. The example I will use for this argument is April's NPD sales , which were much lower than initially anticipated. As a result, guys like Michael Pachter appear to be very worried (he thinks something might be "terribly wrong"). He does mention that gamers probably spent in March and are looking forward to May, but clearly, this was not factored into the original predictions…so, why? Guys, I think we all know that last month was almost entirely dead. Okay, the last week featured Nier and Super Street Fighter IV , but I doubt either of those will be million-sellers and I also don't think Conviction (released on April 13) will sell as well as everyone may think. Besides, it's an exclusive, which automatically limits potential sales. Other than that? Sherlock Holmes vs. Jack the Ripper ? Episodes from Liberty City for the PS3 that I can almost guarantee few PS3 owners care about (nobody here at PSXE seemed to)…?
Furthermore, look at March. God of War III , Final Fantasy XIII , Battlefield: Bad Company 2 , Just Cause 2 , Yakuza 3 , even the expansion Dragon Age: Awakenings , and more. And yes, I know I just cited a few exclusives here, too, but the bottom line is that March presented gamers with a slew of great titles from which to choose. Now, May: Red Dead Redemption , Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands , Lost Planet 2 , Split/Second (getting great reviews thus far), and the surprisingly popular 3D Dot Game Heroes . Sans the latter, many have been anticipating this month ever since…well, March. The bottom line is that I don't think analysts give gaming consumers enough credit sometimes. Many really have to plan ahead because most are on budgets (time and money), and they're some of the more informed consumers of any given entertainment venue. It's likely that many spent a pretty penny in March and weren't about to drop any more cash in April, especially when there was almost nothing to entice them.
Furthermore, there's no doubt they were looking forward into this month with the full knowledge they'd have to assault the wallet yet again. Lastly, gamers are well aware of the new technology on the horizon; Move and Natal would represent more investments and 3D is a huge investment unless you're somehow already blessed with a 3D-compatible HDTV. In the end, this is all I'm saying: if I were an analyst going into the March-May period, I would predict a huge March, an absolutely lousy April, and a solid (potentially great) May. I mean…considering all points, wouldn't you? It's almost like hindsight is 20/20 but when releasing expectations for April, shouldn't such thoughts go into the process?
You would think these "experts" would realize that April was a barren month for AAA games. But no, they need to "scaremonger" in order to curry attention. What do they think we are, dumb?
I actually appreciate a small (albeit VERY small) amount of alarmist media from time to time. It keeps things exciting! I personally think that Pachter just wants to stir the pot occasionally.
April was a barren month for much more then just AAA games. Speaking about the US, my business sales were down in April too. Tax month i suspect was the cause the slow down in a lot of industries. When i worked for the bank doing auto loans, April was always a slow month for car sales as well.
Last edited by Jawknee on 5/17/2010 11:24:09 AM
Well yeah, this happens every single year. I can't defend the behavior of many forum contributors (who can be the biggest douchebags of all time) an informed individual can make decent predictions in line with or better than your typical analyst. They may be better trained to be in that position, but with a simple formula even our intrepid Highlander friend easily predicted some trends.
I think SSF4 will get to a million eventually why wouldn't it? If you don't have it and enjoyed SF4 get SSF4, it's not a small add-on that's the problem is people though it should be DLC and they're wrong.
Sorry I haven't gotten either one of them and I probably won't. 2d fighters have never been my thing and most likely never will. Sorry again, but that's why I don't have them.
Because of the popularity of video games and the money that can be made, well, in come the "analysts" and "professional critics" to tell us all about the industry and how it's "making money" and "oh no! Now there's a downswing!"
Gimme a break. Video game critics and analysts are not in a "position" as you claim. They are people who are paid to sensationalize new products and sales numbers.
And they have to have some skills to qualify for that job of sensationalizing things 🙂
Thank you for that wonderfully insulting commentary on my position.
Uncalled for.
Critics and analysts are formally trained to deal with statistics and may even help the industry relaise trends and patterns for developers to follow.
I would read and agree with nearly all Ben's articles and comments because they make a valid point whilst remaining relatively neutral, which believe it or not is quite a hard thing to do.
Only occassionally does Pachter say a few wrong things or make obvious comments on common knowledge data or trends. Rest of the time, he's fairly accurate with how things might work out in the gaming biz.
Ben, keep up the good work. Don't let users like Alienage let you down. The PSXextreme fans love you here, man.
Last edited by Dancemachine55 on 5/17/2010 3:56:32 AM
Amen Dancemachine!
I've been an editor/writer on Wall Street for 13 years now, and I can tell you analysts do have a specific skill set that most knuckleheads on the web just don't get. And no, not everyone can do their jobs.
That said, I will admit this, you wouldn't believe how many people with their MBAs and/or legal degrees really can't write. I mean, come on, these are highly educated people who couldn't write their way out of a wet paper bag with a sharpened No. 2 pencil.
@ Ben – When I wrote what I wrote I was, in my mind, thinking of you as a gaming journalist and had no intention of insulting you or the job you do. This article was about analysts and I should have left critics out of my comment as it is obviously insulting to you.
My apologies for that. I certainly don't come here daily to insult you or your work.
Analysts study market trends, numbers, and statistics. If you have ever taken a college statistics course, which at least where I attend college, is a required course to complete your degree, you will know that it is no walk in the park. Statistics sucks, period. There is a reason they jokingly call that class Sadistics.
Believe it or not they don't just sit around thinking of things to make up and scare people with, though from your previously stated position you will continue to believe that is exactly what they do.
Hold the phone coverton341. I don't think they "just sit around thinking of things to make up." They certainly DO analyse the trends and the numbers. What I'm getting at is WHY many do it.
When an analyst is constantly looking for publicity then he's no longer just analyzing. He is now influencing the industry he's focusing on.
For example, we all know Red Dead Redemption will sell wonderfully but, wouldn't you know it, an analyst has stepped up to sensationalize the situation and now many more gamers will say "well if it's THAT popular, i'm going to buy it too."
I know you don't, Alienange, which is why I was a little surprised at the comment. No worries. 🙂
All right Alienage, that wording and reasoning makes more sense.
Yes, it does seem that many analysts play to the crowd and work things up more than necessary, but not all do just like in any given profession. Some do it for the fame some do it because they enjoy it. Now, speaking from my own personal perspective I cannot figure out for the life of me why anyone would enjoy following market trends and analysing statistics for a living but, to each their own I suppose.
People with MBAs aren't highly educated. 😉
I don't understand all these analysts and their silly predictions. They either state the obvious or say something obscure and meaningless. They contribute absolutely nothing to the gaming industry except for occasionally stirring doubt and fear based on assumptions while ignoring facts and industry trends.
I would love to see you take on Ben's job, delivering reviews for games, managing a website and finding data and information all over the internet, podcasts, twitter, other gaming websites, Gov't listings, etc, to create interesting articles with.
My comment is referring to analysts, not game reviewers. I said nothing whatsoever about Ben, thank you very much.
Common sense is not common.
Or it isn't sense.
Everyone's waitring for Red Dead. I'm with you Ben, do they not realize that people weigh games they are deciding to get against whats coming out in the next few weeks? I was surprised to see a $15 western shooter release a couple of weeks before Red Dead (I know its only $5 more than $10 but this is like rape to me! It all started with that Madden Arcade game…), Why wouldnt a PSN XBL title hide from a blockbuster in the same genre? I guess it's better than coming out after it though.
Ben, you quoted this analyst as saying there might be something "terribly wrong". And then you inferred he should look at the months surrounding April rather than assuming the sky is falling.
Why did you not include his other quotes?
Pachtner – "Unfortunately, we are at a loss to identify precisely what was wrong, given relatively robust sales for the three months prior, decent weather, an improving economy, and a deep catalog of recently released titlesâ¦As we cannot explain the reasons for the shortfall, we can only conclude that April was a fluke, with many core gamers enjoying recently purchased games and looking forward to new releases coming out in May."
It seems he did identify as a reason the great titles of March, and that gamers are also looking forward to May.
In this instance, you didn't misquote him, you just…didn't quote him.
Last edited by MyWorstNightmar on 5/16/2010 10:49:52 PM
I didn't really make it clear so I just fixed that bit in the article.
But that doesn't change the fact that initial expectations for April were a lot higher than they should've been, and I have no idea why.
It's almost as if the reason was dawning on Pachter as he was trying to explain the "fluke."
Ben, it reads better! lol
But there was a typo. "He does mention that gamers probably spent in April and are looking forward to May"
You mean spent in March.
Note to Pachter: You think R* is worried about the sales in April? It's all relative. $ will continue to flow into the industry. And pockets will continue to get fat. All these numbers would be different if even 1 of Marchs releases decided to release in April instead.
Last edited by MyWorstNightmar on 5/16/2010 11:44:52 PM
Yeah, fixed. Being able to edit really fast is a double-edged sword. LOL
@ MyWorstNightmar
Way to go picking up on those mistakes and little absences in the article. It's members like you who REALLY contribute to these comment threads.
BTW, this is the only website I'm an actual member of cos of community members like you and editors like Ben.
Last edited by Dancemachine55 on 5/17/2010 4:03:35 AM
I think Ben summed it up pretty well. With very highly anticipated games releasing in March, this very well effected game sales in April. It did for me!
I made a prediction below. Lets see how close I come compared to the "pros".
Btw – I feel like this article was written for me. I feel special 🙂
Last edited by Nynja on 5/17/2010 3:45:36 PM
Well, the reason you can see the common sense Ben, is because you're not an analyst =)
That's right, analysts stink at their job. The good ones probably don't make themselves public.
And no, I'm implying this as fact on anybody. Merely my opinion.
They're not dumb
They know what they're doing
They want to make these companies think 'bout MONEY MONEY MONEY!
It's the same road Hollywood took
After decades of masterpieces through the 60s, 70s, and 80s, it all started going downhill in the 00s (imho)
It's all 'bout streamlining v-games
All games should multiplatform!
They should care less 'bout quality and more 'bout giving the gamer a little HIGH here and there
And then re-selling the same game with slight updates every year: Call of Duty/Madden
Yes Pachter, I can see right through you*
O Lord… while I do think that conclusion you came to is very rash, that is indeed a scary thought.
Can't see that ever happening though
question what the heck was released in April big game wise?
April pretty much was a dead month for anything, not even any good movies were released on dvd or theatre in that month. What are they worrying about? March had big AAA games that were released consumers were probably enjoying all those great titles.
Come to think of it, I spent all of April pissed that they removed the Install OtherOS option…..
…. yep, didn't see anything positive from the industry that month.
Splinter Cell Conviction on 360, and Super Street Fighter IV on PS3.
That was it, the only two big games I got for the month.
Well worth getting SC:C on 360 if you have one, or PC if it can handle it. Great game.
Last edited by Dancemachine55 on 5/17/2010 4:07:54 AM
Hey!
My B-day was in April!
Sure, I didn't get great gifts due to the lack of games, but there was cake!
I personally believe that in order for them to make more money, they have to make a certain judgment in which what stands where. Or sometimes, they do just like the attention and it doesn't really matter WHAT they say, as long as they say it. I guess what I'm trying to get at is that what they say is just as reliable as what one of us would say; It could come true, but it might not, no matter how you look at things. It's all guesses.
Meh… I've heard some pretty dumb things out of analysts and critics mouth (few and far between). I'm not saying I'm more qualified than them by any means but at the same time the thought of "what monkey through a dart at a list of applicants and picked this nimrod for the job" comes to mind.
IMO it was the lack of blockbuster releases that came out for the PS3 during April. While I do disagree with you Ben about your predictions about SSFIV sales, I still don't see it as a system seller either. If SF was a system seller it would have probably gotten most of the consumers to commit when the original SFIV came out anyway. Not to mention it isn't even exclusive.
But yea the analysts should try and see the situation from the view of a regular consumer who may be on a budget. It's seemingly obvious why there weren't a lot of system sales but that doesn't call for a reason to panic
Well I agree with Ben. If they didn't have a certain skill set they were never achieve the job title of analyst. However analysts have to analyze a variety of things, most of which revolves around money. These analysts know quite a bit about money and finance, but that doesn't mean they are experts in the world of video games.
Another thing that I've been considering is that, I'm sure these analysts all make predictions for a multitude of things, but all we as gamers mostly hear about are their gaming predictions. Perhaps it's not that they are bad analysts, they're just not gamers and therefore don't understand video game trends.
However as for the april predictions, that was definitely a blunder on their part. Altho the blunder could just be that since they are not gamers they can't tell which games will sell well and which ones gamers scoff at.
In the end I think you definitely need certain skills for predicting financial outcomes, and most definitely for reviewing games, but perhaps we think analysts are dumb because when it comes to video games they just don't know the consumer.
Critics make comments of a few different varieties
1) either they make well thought out comments that really involve the history of the matter
2) they state a flat out opinion
3) they guess a bunch of crap without the historical backing involved in 1)
I think that's about it, and those apply to pretty much everyone, not just critics.
Last year when "critics" predicted the PS3 price cut almost every day of the year, well ya, anyone who had any knowledge on the pricing of electronics KNEW the price would fall…. didn't really mean the critics knew more than the guy who understood why electronics prices fall.
Comments should be considered on their merit, reguardless of who says them.
@ Ben
You didn't mention this month has Modnation racers. 🙁 Come on now feel the play, create, share love!
Oh damn, forgot. Sorry. 🙂
Analysts are an entirely different form of beast to a critic though. In many ways they ARE completely ignorant and naive to many issues important to the gaming community and development scene.
Profitability is not the be all end all as a game can be an artistic endeavour, there's fan loyalty at work, there's developer loyalty. Sony has been good to Insomniac, Insomniac has been good to Sony. They enjoy working with the ps3 and together, just like Kojima, he loves and enjoys the capabilities of Sony's hardware and enjoys making games for what he wants and what platform he wants. Quantic Dreams also comes to mind, Sony also helped with the actual development of Heavy Rain, not just in a direct financial benfit way. Analysts are of the economic world none of this registers. I feel that quite honestly, they shouldnt even be covered on a site like this.
That's what analysts do: analyze the data and then offer an OPINION where they think the trend is going to go. That doesn't mean they will always be right.
Sometimes I think the depth of analysis goes about as far as "I got a degree from a business school, therefore I know it all." Events which should have a major impact on stock prices are ignored, while events which most gamers know aren't going to amount to much seem to guide the predictions. For instance, MW2 was the most profitable game in a long time, and then Infinity Ward basically fell apart. Reaction from the markets? None. On the other hand, these people think that the Move and Natal and 3-D TV are going to have a large impact on sales. Yeah, I can just see tens of millions of Wii owners running out to get PS3's and xbox's, and millions of people with nearly new HDTV's flocking to stores to drop two grand on another new HDTV.
But what do I know.
You're a damn fine analyst in MY books.
I think what people have to consider is that analysts are making there predictions for the benefit of investors.
Investors who most likely know little or care little about the state of the video game industry and just want a decent return on their money. I assume the majority of these analyst predictions aren't made with the intention of them being published on game websites and abused.
Of course gamers knew that MW2 was going to sell millions, it was the most anticipated release of last year (multi-platform), but how would a 50 year old investor who has never played a game know such a thing?
The majority of what these people say comes true, and I know people think "well I could work this stuff out" but could you also do it for dozens of other industries which the analysts no doubt have to.
I think we should give analysts a break.
I see you mention split/second, and that one appeared from nowhere for me, tried the demo and it looked extremely promising indeed. It's always fun with surprises like these, new games that looks awesome and we don't have to wait *years* to play. Too often the hype machine is started too early, once the game actually gets released we're almost tired of it…!
Being an advocate here, what if something is still wrong with the Global economy? All I know is fuel, food, utility bills, and just living is getting more expensive, despite what some "analysts" state.
All one needs to do for further proof, is monitor the trouble in Europe (1 trillion Euro bailout, Greece). You can then focus on the still struggling US economy (Housing market, un-employment).
Eventually, entertainment will become an a non-necessity if things continue to get worse.
Personally, I think that May will be a good month for the industry, and if it's not.. the video game market's slow down is nothing but another symptom of what's happening on Earth.
Just something to think about.
Last edited by maxpontiac on 5/17/2010 12:48:43 PM
Lets analyze this;
Checking sources… Checking fact sheets… Checking common knowledge…
Yup. My figures show they attempt to use common sense which a large portion of people appear to lack – according to my sources.