Ben-DutkaBefore I present my theory, I have to start with a disclaimer: the elitist mentality in the gaming population translates to the widespread belief that any hardcore fan can do a critic's job and an analyst's job, and do it better than either of the aforementioned professionals. It's a little embarrassing to see so much of this in the communities and forums around the Internet, actually. I'm not saying critics and analysts are always correct, but I am saying that both have certain skills and credentials that mean they are – yes, they are – more qualified to be in their positions than the dude who spends his life on forums spreading his "I know more than everyone" maxim.
That being said, I do often wonder if analysts take the time to use an added dose of common sense when it comes to their predictions and expectations. The example I will use for this argument is April's NPD sales , which were much lower than initially anticipated. As a result, guys like Michael Pachter appear to be very worried (he thinks something might be "terribly wrong"). He does mention that gamers probably spent in March and are looking forward to May, but clearly, this was not factored into the original predictions…so, why? Guys, I think we all know that last month was almost entirely dead. Okay, the last week featured Nier and Super Street Fighter IV , but I doubt either of those will be million-sellers and I also don't think Conviction (released on April 13) will sell as well as everyone may think. Besides, it's an exclusive, which automatically limits potential sales. Other than that? Sherlock Holmes vs. Jack the Ripper ? Episodes from Liberty City for the PS3 that I can almost guarantee few PS3 owners care about (nobody here at PSXE seemed to)…?
Furthermore, look at March. God of War III , Final Fantasy XIII , Battlefield: Bad Company 2 , Just Cause 2 , Yakuza 3 , even the expansion Dragon Age: Awakenings , and more. And yes, I know I just cited a few exclusives here, too, but the bottom line is that March presented gamers with a slew of great titles from which to choose. Now, May: Red Dead Redemption , Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands , Lost Planet 2 , Split/Second (getting great reviews thus far), and the surprisingly popular 3D Dot Game Heroes . Sans the latter, many have been anticipating this month ever since…well, March. The bottom line is that I don't think analysts give gaming consumers enough credit sometimes. Many really have to plan ahead because most are on budgets (time and money), and they're some of the more informed consumers of any given entertainment venue. It's likely that many spent a pretty penny in March and weren't about to drop any more cash in April, especially when there was almost nothing to entice them.
Furthermore, there's no doubt they were looking forward into this month with the full knowledge they'd have to assault the wallet yet again. Lastly, gamers are well aware of the new technology on the horizon; Move and Natal would represent more investments and 3D is a huge investment unless you're somehow already blessed with a 3D-compatible HDTV. In the end, this is all I'm saying: if I were an analyst going into the March-May period, I would predict a huge March, an absolutely lousy April, and a solid (potentially great) May. I mean…considering all points, wouldn't you? It's almost like hindsight is 20/20 but when releasing expectations for April, shouldn't such thoughts go into the process?
Here's my prediction:
I think Ben summed it up pretty well. With very highly anticipated games releasing in March, this very well effected game sales in April.
Add to that, it's tax month. I'm sure a lot of people were busy filing and paying taxes. Lets not forget about the MW2 map pack that was released as well. With another not due till June, for the month of May, we'll see an increase in sales compared to the previous month, April. We will also see a rise in sales when compared to the previous year. Last year's biggest game(s) at that time was X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Riddick, and Punch-Out on the Wii. This year we have Skate 3, Batman GOTY, Lost Planet 2, UFC, ModNation, and Iron Man 2. Even though I think Iron Man 2 will be as crapy as the first one, the first installment still sold well. All proven franchises and a new IP that has collected a lot of momentum right before release tomorrow.
Game Sales (All Platforms):
Lost Planet 2 – 1.5 mil
Iron Man 2 – 1.1 mil
UFC – 900k
Batman – 500k
ModNation – 300k (PS3 only)
Console Sales:
Wii – 410k
PS3 – 240k
360 – 230k
Lets see how close I come now.
Last edited by Nynja on 5/17/2010 3:47:17 PM
Well, I can't speak of most analyst's because most of them don't try to always be in the limelight as a tried & true-blue "media whore" as Pachtar does.
And I'm sure most of them are good at thinking on just exactly what they're paid to think about.
But with that said,…….
I think that in putting the words, "Pachtar" & "analyst", anywhere in the same sentence,
only creates a "quadruple-oxymoron".
Last edited by BikerSaint on 5/17/2010 3:48:35 PM
Bottom line, most of you guys are missing the point. Like I wrote before, I work for a financial company that rates, and publishes reports analyzing, debt ( bonds) and offers opinions on equities (stocks). In both cases, the analysts are writing reports for the INVESTORS to read, not the media. However, the analysts do get calls from journalists asking questions about a bond rating if the bonds are for a project in the city they cover or if the stock is in a sector they cover.
I’m certain the same thing goes on with Pachter and Divinich. They write reports for stock investors; but any good journalist will pick those reports off the wire to read because the analysts, most times, have access to information you or I or the journalists don’t have until we read the report.
In turn, it’s the “journalists†from GameSpot, IGN, and Kotaku that call Pachter or Divinich for comment. Maybe they don’t even do that. Maybe they just quote Pachter and Divinich from their reports. I’m sure neither publicly seeks the attention. They are just doing their jobs.
But of course none of this matters because most of you who hold your negative opinions on analysts will never be swayed to see reason because you, of course, know better than everyone else, even those with knowledge you don’t have about the situation.
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@Ben. Sorry, just couldn't resist. I mean, the comment has been here for an hour. Feel free to delete my post once you delete the other posts.