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Report: PS3 Will Eventually Outsell Both Rival Consoles

The PS3 sales surge hit a new peak when the price fell $100 last fall, and one group of analysts say the hot-selling machine will eventually surpass both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii.

As reported by Gamasutra , the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices (SACHD) service has provided us with a new forecast report, and the results show the PS3 at the top of the sales heap when all is said and done. This is primarily because they anticipate a much longer lifespan; the prediction is that the PS3 will remain a "commercial platform" for five years after Nintendo has replaced the Wii. Overall, the report estimates that PS3 sales will eventually hit 127 million worldwide, compared to around 103 million Wii units. There is no expected total number for the Xbox 360, but they say both the 360 and the PS3 "will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014." But the bottom line is that the PS3 should continue to be relevant for far longer than either the 360 or the Wii. Said SACHD principal analyst and the report's author, David Mercer:

"Nintendo has done a great job with the Wii in bringing console games to new audiences. But its sales are now falling, particularly in mature markets, and its installed base will peak in 2011. Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014."

Furthermore, the total global installed user base for home consoles will top 220 million by the end of 2010, although they also add that manufacturers will have to "introduce new systems in order to maintain industry growth." All along, Sony has said the PS3 has a 10-year life cycle and the more we progress through this generation, the more it seems that claim is just about accurate.

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godsman
godsman
14 years ago

I dont believe this. I'm sure PS3 will rise to the top eventually. The current install base for:

Wii = 70 mil
Xbox = 38 mil
PS3 = 33 mil.

Total is about 141 million units.

How in hell is the total going to be 220 by the end of 2010?! Sony should really address the shortage issue. There's too much demand at this critical time. The perfect time to catch up to other consoles.


Last edited by godsman on 3/8/2010 9:40:06 PM

Ivan_PSP
Ivan_PSP
14 years ago

This is primarily because they anticipate a much longer lifespan; the prediction is that the PS3 will remain a "commercial platform" for five years after Nintendo has replaced the Wii.

photo K
photo K
14 years ago

Are the xbox numbers realistic? Does the survey include owners who have bought more than 1 xbox due to the high failure rate? I have 2 friends who have purchased more than 1 xbox each due to the RRoD. I only have one myself.

xnonsuchx
xnonsuchx
14 years ago

MS not giving out true #'s of RRoD/E74 units is kinda like them only releasing total sales of Windows copies (instead of Retail vs. OEM) since Vista came out. People went out and BOUGHT copies of 95/98/XP (even WinMe, unfortunately), but by far, most getting Vista/Win7 only have it because they bought a new computer.

Danny007
Danny007
14 years ago

Nice avatar photo K. LOL

photo K
photo K
14 years ago

Thanks, its a real shot. At the time it was annoying, but it was also funny because its kind of expected to happen.

sunspider13
sunspider13
14 years ago

I figure that Sony will address the shortage, with so many games coming out this year it would be foolish not to have the systems to play them.

NoSmokingBandit
NoSmokingBandit
14 years ago

Lol no.

I think the ps3 will outsell the 360 in the long run, but the Wii is still selling like crazy.

kraygen
kraygen
14 years ago

Actually while it is still selling, reports from nintendo claim they have fallen quite a bit. I don't remember the actual percentage nintendo claimed, but they do expect the decline to continue.

Nick Maim
Nick Maim
14 years ago

PS3 is almost caught up to the 360. The Slim and the coincidental price drop and influx of amazing exclusives, is responsible for this. One more price cut, to let's say $250, will seal the 360's coffin. Not to say that the 360 will go away. It will trail in distant 3rd, with over 40 Halo titles by then.

For Sony the PS3 is, and always will be, a loss leader. They'll make their money on selling you BlueRay movies, downloads, and a ton of games. They also make money on selling peripherals, which will include the Arc and associated games.

This leads me to the last point: The Arc will remove Nintendo as a competitor in the casual gamers market. Nintendo will by then have 300 Mario Bros-related titles, and will become a one-trick pony, catering to the ladies and the elderly.

So yeah, PS3 world domination has begun. Once again. Finally.

Scarecrow
Scarecrow
14 years ago

GT5 will hilariously sell ps3s like it was hot sandwiches

Banky A
Banky A
14 years ago

Hilariously.

totozero18
totozero18
14 years ago

I lol'd

psxmax
psxmax
14 years ago

Just keep the good games coming and the PS3 will sell like a cup cake at fat camp.

LimitedVertigo
LimitedVertigo
14 years ago

As much as I don't enjoy the wii (please don't hurt me nightmar) it's geared towards a wider market thanks to all the casual gamers out there that are misinformed.

I don't see the PS3 or 360 catching up to the wii.

Vitron
Vitron
14 years ago

well, the "arc" or whatever is coming soon, so who knows?

SolidFantasy
SolidFantasy
14 years ago

well this is good news to hear.

556pineapple
556pineapple
14 years ago

I agree, this story seems over-optimistic on all accounts, but I'm sure the PS3 will pass it at some point. I just witnessed somebody purchase a PS3 in Target today and couldn't help but smile.

Orvisman
Orvisman
14 years ago

I was in my local GameStop on Sunday afternoon and a girl and boy with their Dad had picked up a PS3 box and a couple of games. Unfortunately, they didn't have any in stock. I felt bad for them. They ultimately bought a DS and a few games and a Wii game.

Sony lost a sale there. Hopefully Sony gets units into stores today for FFXIII and GOW3. If it doesn't, Sony could lose more sales to the 360 for those FF fans who want to upgrade from the PS2 to play FFXIII.

Ivan_PSP
Ivan_PSP
14 years ago

I see this happening is a sure thing. Is PlayStation so is gotta be back to number 1

PlayStation 102.49 Millions
PlayStation 2 140 Millions
PlayStation 3 127 Millions or more soon.
PlayStation Portable 100 million too soon.

Kowhoho
Kowhoho
14 years ago

It's all on what happens this year. If the Wii takes a nosedive and the Box goes under 10m units for the year, the PS3 could overtake them if it sold more than, say, 14m units a year. The PS2 did it!
Problem is, predicting the results is less and less fun as it comes closer to the end…the end…..THE END……*eye twitches furiously*…..

*slaps face*. Whew, I'm learning to control my lust for chaos, but it's a process.

johnld
johnld
14 years ago

and you know microsoft will make sure to end this generation with them ontop.

*ohh hell! sony is catching up, time to rush a new system out! well take care of hardware issues later because xbots will buy it either way.*

mackid1993
mackid1993
14 years ago

When the price dropped to $299 we new it was the beginning of the end for the console war and the PS3 would likely reign supreme. I really want to be an analyst. They tend to restate the obvious.

WolfCrimson
WolfCrimson
14 years ago

And you get paid for that! lol, mackid, seems like you finally ventured out of the forums and onto the main site

shadowpal2
shadowpal2
14 years ago

I know that the PS3 will definitely sell and outsell the 360…as for the Wii – ooo…that's quite a big thing to say. I mean technically it should…but it's just that there's already so many of them just cause it was the cheapest console around at the time. Now it looks pathetic considering the PS3 is only $299.

It can be done though – it'll just take time… and a lot of kick ass games from Sony's 1st party Developers and daring 3rd party developers who decide to keep their game exclusive to the PS3 for the sake of the game.

But with FFXIII and God of War III coming out soon (hell FFXIII tomorrow)…it's definitely going to help the PS3 sell units here and there.

Then Gran Turismo 5. Then Final Fantasy Versus XIII. Then…I'm not sure oh maybe the SECRET EXCLUSIVE THAT BEN has known for 10 years?


Last edited by shadowpal2 on 3/8/2010 10:27:03 PM

mexgeo86
mexgeo86
14 years ago

add on the motion controls (Arc) and 3d gaming. By 2012 the latter could be much more common if it manages to grab gamers.

johnld
johnld
14 years ago

i still dont see Arc and Natal a big factor. i mean most gamers already dont like motion controls so i doubt its gonna be for them. The only thing i see is sony or microsoft taking some nintendo customers but then again, even if sony crates top notch motion controlled games, these "casual" crowd will still prefer nintendo type games like the biggest looser or wii fit. the casual crowd is just to misinformed or just following the herd. I had a customer ask me if she should quit her gym membership and just buy a wii fit.

kraygen
kraygen
14 years ago

@johnld

gotta disagree, with the introduction of the arc, sony could create the same style of games that the wii offers, while at the same time offering motion controlling for sword/shield action games, rpgs, gun attachments for shooters.

With the arc its possible to steal the market.

Natalisrubbish
Natalisrubbish
14 years ago

@ Johnld

LOL neither do, incase you couldn't tell by my name…hahah

smileylyon
smileylyon
14 years ago

If everyone who wanted to buy a PS3 could actually find one, then it will definitely rise to the top. I see a bigger demand for the PS3 than the Wii and the 360 lately, but the stores just don't have the product to sell!

totozero18
totozero18
14 years ago

EDIT: If everyone who wanted to buy a PS3 could actually AFFORD one


Last edited by totozero18 on 3/9/2010 3:15:42 PM

Vitron
Vitron
14 years ago

It was bound to happen

Bloodysilence19
Bloodysilence19
14 years ago

isn't ps3 already outselling the 360 worldwide. the wii is just the wii it will always sell more cause its family orientated with its casual games. i just want the ps3 to outsell the 360 in U.S. mainly. when e3 comes around which i think will be the biggest e3 yet well hopefully. just as long as Ms and Sony doesn't spend billions of mins talking about their motion controllers. im a gamer i want to hear about upcoming games.

Snaaaake
Snaaaake
14 years ago

Isn't the Wii outselling the PS3 and 360 every single month??

There's really no chance of catching the Wii.

Like Sony once said, 360 lack longevity, the one advantage PS3 has over the 360 is Blu Ray and it's a huge advantage.

kraygen
kraygen
14 years ago

Some articles to show current trends of gaming.

xbox360

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/xbox-360-sales-down-13-percent-year-on-year

http://news.spong.com/article/20435/Microsoft-Xbox-360-Sales-Down-but-Income-Up

Here are some wii examples.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=ajRSUK2ZYYlM

http://www.gamezine.co.uk/news/nintendo-profits-slide-as-wii-sales-slow-down-$1356818.htm

Ps3

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/27428/Japanese_Hardware_PS3_Sales_Up_29_Percent_WeekOnWeek.php

http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/62249

And finally gaming overall.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2010/02/video-game-sales-plunge-in-january-2010.html

Now taking all this info into account isn't it nice to know that while the gaming industry as a whole is dropping, xbox 360 sales and wii sales are down, Ps3 sales are up.

It's very viable not only that ps3 sales will catch up, but will exceed both of the other consoles. I'm willing to believe in playstation, it is the better console as a whole.

ps. 360 sales numbers are bloated as the contain not only original sales but replacements for broken consoles, such as red ring of death replacements. So who knows the actual sales numbers for 360.

rogers71
rogers71
14 years ago

This just in: 1 analyst for Core Health Analysis Operations and Systems (CHAOS) says that God Of War III will be coming to the PS3.

I think these analysts sit in a room watching news channels, reading internet sites and then regurgitate what they read and hear. Where do you sign up for these jobs?

Banky A
Banky A
14 years ago

Chuckle.

archs13
archs13
14 years ago

it only does ten years and b3yond……

WorldEndsWithMe
WorldEndsWithMe
14 years ago

Well, I think an intelligent person that takes in the RROD effect can reason out that PS3 has already passed the 360, even with a few YLODs here and there.

___________
___________
14 years ago

this guys gotta stop smoking whatever it is hes smoking.
in fact stop smoking all together, youll be surprised how much can change after that………

the ps3 is never, ever, EVER! going to overtake the wii, sorry thats just fact.
its been selling like sliced bread still is, and always will.
why?
because of nintendos family image and the soccer moms.
a friend of mine has been nagging his parents for a ps3 for years and they keep refusing using the excuse games are the work of the devil.
keep in mind there extremely religious, so yea.
last week they got him a wii and he was well not exactly upset but not pleased either because theres nothing on there he likes.
than he said i thought games were the work of the devil and his parents replied not the wii because its a kids system.

thats why wiis are selling through the roof because for some reason parents look at the 360 they see gears and halo, they look at the ps3 and see GOW and killzone all violent games, than they look at the wii and somehow miss madworld, resident evil 4 and such.
that is why i am so worried about sony bringing out their motion controller because im worried there going to not desert but change their focus from hardcore to casual.
not completley desert hardcore games but shift their priorities slightly.
ive already lost 8 days and the getaway 3 because of crappy casual games eyepet to be specific as if that was not enough!

Darwin1967
Darwin1967
14 years ago

You're mostly right….the wii is definately preferred by parents, more based on price than probably games. Also, many parents grew up on Nintendo themselves, so it would be natural they'd want to bring their kids up on the system they too enjoyed when they were young.

What I think sales analysts aren't capturing, is how the WII tends to be a secondary instead of primary gaming system in many households. I purchased my PS3 in 2007. My kids have enjoyed a few games on there…LBP, Ratchet, etc. but when we thought about a gaming system for the kids, we immediately went for a WII. There are many factors for why the wii is a better sell for families. Many games allow for up to four players, so come family game night, we're all involved instead of 'waiting' our turns. Also, Nintendo does cater more to the younger players, but also to the 'moms' who might enjoy the excercise programs as well….it's definately more rounded than say either the PS3 or 360 when it comes to family play.

With that said, my PS3 is still my favorite system and when the kids are off to bed…it's the PS3 remote I grab for some quality adult gaming.

___________
___________
14 years ago

well said.
thats one thing sony really needs to get there act on, splitscreen games.
or just games where more than one player can play on each system.

what i really dont want to see is ps3 games taking the wiis route.
sony has seen how successful the wii is and there trying to bring that over to there side of the grass.

that explains why games like madworld, resi 4, cursed mountain, the conduit, dead space extraction and such have not sold on the wii.
because its a kids console and well none of those games are suitable for kids.
as i said the only thing im worried about is sony wanting some of the casual pie.
as much as i like those style of games, i really miss playing mario brothers the rest of the gameboy classics, id much rather sony stick to the hardcore GOW3, 8 days games.

Orvisman
Orvisman
14 years ago

Actually, there are probably just as many younger parents in their mid-20s and up who more than likely grew up PS1/PS2 fans considering how dominant those systems were.

photo K
photo K
14 years ago

Well ____ is right that the wii is a family game, which appeals to a much wider audience. And I also doubt the PS3 will outsell the wii. The PS3 will surpass the 360 due to the better quality, the bluray feature, and dare I say, better Games (yeah I said it). It May catch up to the wii but not any time soon. i would think most of the hardcore gamers should have a ps3 already by now, not its about reaching out to a wider audience with features like ARC.

I know that the wii is more popular in my family as my mom, sister, brother and myself all own one, while the PS3 and Xbox will never reach my mom and sister. They both bought bluray players and have no need to go the ps3/360 route. So from my own experience, its not realistic.

Alienange
Alienange
14 years ago

Ok I guess we'll keep referring to the Wii as a next gen console and keep including it along with the two main systems when we speak about sales numbers. Without the Wii we'd think 30 million is a lot of consoles so at the very least it keeps things interesting.

TheHighlander
TheHighlander
14 years ago

I'm just going to re-post something I wrote in September 2009 (I was reminded of it and went digging…)

The reason I mention it is because I predicted (with some Excel Magic) that Sony would sell about 111 million PS3s based on some conservative estimates. Just a few % either way on my model and Sony would sell 130 million or so. All I want to know is where is my cut of the no doubt huge fee that the SACHD analysts got for their work? It's not that I'm special, I just can't understand why anyone puts such weight in these predictions. If I can throw something together in 15 minutes in Excel, 6 months ago, that is as close to being accurate as this is, then I really have to doubt how much research the SACHD analysts had to do. Anyway, on to my prediction…

TheHighlander
Friday, September 04, 2009 @ 11:10:50 AM

PS3 has sold roughly 10 million units a year. If the price cut elevates sales by an average of 60% consistently, then that will average at 16 million units a year.

NPD thinks the Slim model and price cut lift PS3 sales by 40-60%. If we go with a 50% jump we could see the following (Excel is a great tool)… PS3 sales in year 4 up by 50% over year 3 (10 million units), in year 5 the sales rise another 10%. Year 6, sales are steady, and then in years 7, 8 and 9 sales start declining 20% year on year before dropping by 50% in year 10. That scenario has Sony selling 111 million units by the end of year 10. Making the sales spike sharper, and decline a little faster still gives around 110 million units over 10 years.

To me, if the PS3 even hit's 100 million units, then no matter what anyone says, it's a win for Sony.

It could be better than that though. The market for video games and game consoles is bigger than ever. Far bigger than when the PS2 was on it's way to 140 million units. That market continues to grow as consumers in many developing nations become affluent enough to join in. The transition to HD is another factor. The PS3 is in a perfect place to be the HD entertainment player of choice since it does literally everything needed. It plays games, it plays HD movies on disc (BD) and can stream/download movies online, it browses the net, it plays CDs, it plays DVDs, it plays downloaded music, it does photos, and so on, and so forth. I know we all know this stuff. I listed it to justify saying that the PS3 could be the HD entertainment player of choice. If the PS3 becomes a default choice for HD in the home, then sales way past 100 million units are well within reach.

Whatever way you cut it, the PS3 is here to stay and will sell at very least a significant fraction of 100 million units during it's life – worst case.


Last edited by TheHighlander on 3/9/2010 2:10:27 AM

WorldEndsWithMe
WorldEndsWithMe
14 years ago

Highlander-stradamus?

Banky A
Banky A
14 years ago

*Brain explodes on computer screen*

newchef
newchef
14 years ago

*scanners level headsplosion*

edit: i cant spell =/


Last edited by newchef on 3/9/2010 9:33:50 AM

rogers71
rogers71
14 years ago

Ugghh, what he said^

Highlander, you missed one point.

Analysts have secretaries that use Excel and come up with the formulas for them. You, on the other hand, have done all the work for yourself. Pat yourself on the back my friend.