John-ShepardIt doesn't take long for analysts to look at the year before us and make their annual predictions.
For 2010, one firm believes the only console to see an increase will be the PlayStation 3. Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian thinks the Wii will be hit hard this year, suffering a 20% decline in sales, while the Xbox 360 will remain mostly stagnant, ultimately dropping 5% in overall unit sales. The PS3? He thinks we'll see a 10% increase , which is statistically significant in direct comparison to the competition. This according to IndustryGamers , where Sebastian is quoted as saying:
"For the year, we are currently modeling a 10% increase in PS3 unit sales, Xbox 360 unit sales down 5%, and a 20% decline in Nintendo Wii unit sales. There is upside potential to our estimates with further hardware price reductions. At this point, we expect the console-installed base to increase by roughly 25% to 70 million units, and above the 57 million console units installed of the last generation platforms at the end of 2005."
Back in 2007, it was difficult to conceive of a time when the PS3 would represent the lone upward swing in hardware sales for one full year. But as we all found in 2009, this industry tends to thrive on momentum swings and for now, Sony and the PS3 are hogging all that momentum. How many Game of the Year Awards and nominations did PS3 exclusives secure last year…? And with Blu-Ray/HD entertainment becoming ever more popular, the PS3 is kinda like the cat's pajamas right about now.
funny thing the typical xbox fanbase don't give a f**k about Japanese games like bayo but lately its getting hyped like da best action game ever (yeah best than GoW3 even if its still unreleased so wtf!?!?) .
and almost all site talk about how superior its on the 360.
Last edited by Oxvial on 1/7/2010 4:11:14 AM
Maybe because the PS3 is rising so they decided to use this chance to blast it down a little?
Anyway, I'm not very happy bout Sega not fixing the problems in the game, I wouldn't mind a minor frame rate problem but if it's major then I'm gonna be pissed.
Sad but …USA version = Japan version.
True true, and this is gonna be my first and last game from Platinum Game.
I'm buying Bayonetta because I enjoyed the demo.
with the PS3's early line up this year i'm not suprised. Cant say ive heard anything from the Wii since Super Mario Land, There wasnt much in form of exclusives for the 360 either in 09.
Perfectly said my friend.
The PS3 sales will inevitably rise simply cause of the upcoming exclusives, duh! analysts!!!
When they had the price cuts, and the PS3 went up 500% in sales, while the Xbox went up, what was it, 7% or 17%? And then right back down the following week, while the PS3 has continued it strong sales, it was pretty obvious what the future had in store. I see Xbox games coming out, and the xbots talk about them like they're the greatest thing ever, and a couple weeks later nobody's talking about them at all. Then GOTY voting starts and they get 1%. I see PS3 exclusives come out and people are still excited about them months later, and the only surprise with GOTY is than one PS3 exclusive won instead of the other.
Ahhh…it's nice owning the shiny black box.
Been playing MAG beta… have to say it will surely help PS3 sales…
Engine is good… 1080p with fantastic occlusion and smog effects… again shows that multi-plat engines (in general) suffer from the lack of optimisation.
Q!
"i am home"
Last edited by Qubex on 1/7/2010 9:29:29 AM
Well… the Wii HAS to slow down at some point. There's just no way anything can maintain that kind of pace. I mean, there's only so many people in the world right?… and I still don't get how it's sold so much. Although, I overheard my mother in law saying she wants one… I guess that explains it eh.
As far as the 360 is concerned. Well, jumping the gun will always give you a head start, but if the race is long enough the prize stallion is bound to outrun you.
Blue Ray just got bigger too. Playstation will be in the lead soon.
I hate it when analysts throw out ambiguous numbers without any context. This guy says that he expects the total console install base to reach 70 million units. Considering that the Wii by itself has sold almost that many worldwide, I am pretty sure that all his numbers are for the American market only.
So what do his percentages mean in real numbers? Well from what I could find, in the USA last year the Wii sold over 9 million units, the 360 about 5.3 million units and the PS3 about 4.7 million.
Following his estimates that would mean that he expects this year the Wii will sell about 7.2 million, the PS3 about 5.2 million and the 360 about 5 million. This would be pretty significant because it would be the first 12 month period that the PS3 would have outsold the 360.
While this is good news for Sony, I'm still a little hesitant to say that the tide has completely turned. For one thing no one ever mentions in their estimates that the reason that the PS3 is having consistant year over year sales growth is because the previous years sales have sucked so bad and that the new numbers are just bringing sales up to where they should have been years ago.
Secondly, it appears that the 360 outsold the PS3 in both of the previous two months during the holiday shopping season. Next week's NPD numbers should confirm this but I would have expected the opposite, especially after the Slim release and price cut.
Thirdly, if Sony has designes on catching the 360 install base this generation than outselling it by only two hundred thousand units a year is not going to cut it.
Finally, these numbers show that the Wii is currently at such a high sales level that even with a 20 percent drop it will still outsell either of the other two by 2 million units (almost 40 percent).
I would agree that the PS3's future is brighter than it has ever been, but if we are looking for it to translate into sales that dominate the competition it's just not there.
Lets remember that both the Wii and Xbot are both hackable and have a strong homebrew scene. This alone and competitive pricing will always be attractive to prospective buyers…
Q!
"i am home"
We need a Crash Bandicoot title for ps3…
C'mon Sony, buy the rights to Crash from Universal! >:|
fantastic news I hope they release it with the practiacaly announced Final Fantasy remake. I get very bored of this news ever week.
Last edited by napoleon85 on 1/7/2010 4:17:14 PM
Interesting take.
Hahaha.
*Proper LOL, thanks for that*