It's one thing for the maker of the product to claim it'll be huge; it's quite another when an industry analyst claims the same thing. Of course, none of us really doubt the insane sales potential of Modern Warfare 2 .
Not long after Activision said the hotly anticipated sequel would be the "largest entertainment launch of 2009," Janco Partners' Mike Hickey echoed this sentiment with the analyst's latest investor's note. According to Gamasutra , Hickey says estimated sales of Modern Warfare 2 could hit 11.1 million units in 2009 alone (with only six weeks of sales), with a total of $338 million in revenue on the first day. He further predicts the title will be "the largest video game release of the year," and Janco Partners have placed a "Buy" rating on Activision Blizzard stock, with a price target of $17. The publisher is "exceedingly focused on building pre-orders, given the potential for retailer sensitivity over initial holiday buys," which makes perfect sense, considering the game's scheduled release date of November 10. Added Hickey:
"Given our CY09 sell through estimates for Modern Warfare 2, its possible that the game could be one of the largest entertainment releases of all time. If you assume similar channel unit sales velocity as GTA IV, the game could potentially sell through 7.8 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $569 million in the first week.
Continuing the same channel logic, its possible the game could sell through to consumers 4.6 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $338 million in the first day. We believe they would need 3.2 million pre-orders (1.13 mill from Europe and 2.10 mill from US) to hit 4.6 million first day unit sales."
If you toss in the fact that Activision plans to release the fifth installment in the blockbuster Guitar Hero franchise this year, along with several other promising titles, it wouldn't be out of line to conclude that Activision's stock could – and indeed should – skyrocket before the close of 2009.
Related Game(s): Modern Warfare 2